Bloomberg and Patrick: 5 Quick Takeaways
Amid the nonstop impeachment coverage last week were two potentially significant events in the 2020 Presidential race: Mike Bloomberg dipping a toe into the Democratic primary field, and Deval Patrick taking a full-body leap. There were five things that really stood out.
1) Weakness is provocative: The late entrants show how loud the din of Democratic insider grumbling has become. Democrats’ confidence about beating Donald Trump has been cratering. One third of Democrats and half of Independents expect a nominee emerging from the current crop of Democrats to lose. This has led to what one might call the Princess Bride primary: a substantial number of Democratic voters seeing peril in each of their options. Bloomberg specifically tested Joe Biden’s strength in Super Tuesday states and thought he saw fragility, suggesting an opportunity for another moderate making an electability pitch.
2) This movie has never had a happy ending… Last minute “save the day” entrants usually flame out. That history doesn’t auger well, so these two experienced, data-driven politicians at least thought they saw something to give them confidence.
3) …but maybe this time: What might that be? First, history also shows that one doesn’t need to be riding high in the polls right now to win the nomination. First half of the year polling before the primaries showed George McGovern at 5% in 1971, Jimmy Carter at 1% in 1975, Michael Dukakis at 7.5% in 1987, and Bill Clinton at 1.7% in 1991. Barack Obama was 26 points down as late as December of 2007. Bloomberg has the cash to drive a late surge that no other late-entrant has had.
Second, proven political skills matter. The two most recent late entrants – Democrat Wesley Clark in 2004 and Republican Fred Thompson in 2008 – suffered from the same basic problem: great on paper, not so effective as campaigners. But Patrick especially has a proven track record as a charismatic candidate. Yes, the opposition research dump on both Bloomberg and Patrick has already happened, and it’s especially hard to see the path for Bloomberg. But there are blemishes on every candidate in the field, and the force of the Twitter pushback on Patrick is a sign of nervousness, not strength.
4) The dog that didn’t Barak: In the runup to the 2016 election, President Obama “quietly pressured Mr. Biden to sit out the race.” The exact reaction when Patrick consulted his close friend Obama is unknown, but it’s hard to imagine him going ahead over Obama’s opposition, suggesting at the least that President Obama did not try to put his thumb on the scale for his former Vice President, which is telling in its own right.
5) Bad for the field, mixed for Warren: The impact of credible new entrants for most candidates is negative – adding a free-spending billionaire and a famously eloquent former governor further divides the primary pie, making it harder for everyone else to get traction. Joe Biden has the most to lose as the co-front runner whose lane is clearly being targeted, but the space that Patrick might contest first is the one Pete Buttigieg has been increasingly occupying: best alternative moderate for those who find Warren and Sanders too far left, but who aren’t sold on Biden.
For Bernie Sanders, the effect is mostly good. He seems challenged to grow beyond his left-leaning base, but he doesn’t seem to be in danger of losing them either, so anything that further divides moderates (or black voters, as Patrick might, and where Sanders is not strong) probably dilutes others’ delegate counts more than his.
For Warren, it’s the most complicated. Tactically, it probably helps in the delegate fight for the same reasons as Sanders. Strategically though, it’s not good that so many Democrats have grown so antsy about finding an alternative as she has risen. There’s a recent historical analogy from 2004, when Democrats coalesced late around John Kerry as a more moderate (but acceptable to liberals) alternative to surging liberal favorite Howard Dean. Warren’s camp probably doesn’t mind Bloomberg since he can be a useful foil, but is likely more cautious about fellow Bay Stater Patrick. They will carefully watch not only his topline polling, but also if he gains traction as a second choice for Democrats now supporting other candidates: an area where Warren is currently strong and which is a leading indicator of where the race may go down the stretch as the field narrows.
